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Assuming a declining return in the upcoming cryptocurrency bull market, Coin Bureau - The Daily Hodl provides an outlook


Coin Bureau host Guy Turner is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) is not immune from the laws of diminishing returns.

Turner tells his 2.34 million YouTube subscribers that, based on the flagship crypto asset’s historical gains, Bitcoin could soar by around 250% from its current level during the next crypto bull market.

There are many ways of measuring historical gains. The way we like to do it is to look at the previous zone of support and resistance for the entire cycle and compare it to the most recent top. In BTC’s case, this [support and resistance] zone was around $1,000 during the first cycle. BTC’s top in 2017 was around $20,000, so 20x [gains].

In the second cycle, BTC’s key [support and resistance] zone was around $10,000. BTC’s top in 2021 was $70,000, so 7x. This suggests that BTC has diminishing returns over time, which makes sense considering that this is what happens to every asset as it matures. If we accept this premise, then BTC should see around a 3x gain between its current key zone and its next top.

As far as we can tell, BTC’s key zone is around $40,000 for this cycle. This actually makes sense considering that $40,000 is roughly what it will cost to mine BTC after the next halving. So some quick math tells you that this translates to a BTC price of roughly $120,000, which is in line with many other predictions.”

Bitcoin is trading at $34,308 at time of writing.

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), Turner says that the second-largest crypto asset by market cap could rally by around 726% from the current level in the next bull market.

Next up we have ETH, which is also seeing diminishing returns and seems to be following BTC just one cycle behind. ETH‘s zone of support during the previous cycle was around $250 and its top in 2021 was around $5,000 – that’s a 20x gain. And it foreshadows a 7x gain compared to its current zone.

Similar to BTC, ETH’s zone for this cycle is around $2,500, roughly 10x the zone of the previous cycle. Funnily enough, a 7x gain would translate to a $15,000 ETH top, which is also what many are predicting.”

ETH is worth $1,815 at time of writing.

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